cashew market 2012

"Good business leaders create a vision, articulate the vision, passionately own the vision, and relentlessly drive it to completion" 

2012 season seems to be mixed response for cashew people... even small loss in later part processors/traders tried to highlight to further and forgot the profit they made in initial stages..they forgot the basic theory once the market is bubbled it had to be burst at some point of time.. same situation happens last year and this year too..In rcn when the season starts IVC/GNANA/BENIN traders make decent profit of those consignments shipped on proper time..but later news of quality and quantity shortage affected the market.seeing the market movement on higher side many contract cancellations and late shipments happen from shippers side against the the contract cancellation by importers last year when market become down..this type of playings happening in each market which affecting the market balance. the news from Bissau and gambia had bubbled rcn market to new heights provided exchange rate at peak, but later we seen 15-20% decline in prices. those who make the smart moves in begining had suceeded. 

Prices for RCN for various origins now are as follows Senegal / Gambia. oct/nov contract 49-50 lbs, 220 nuts at 950 usd cnf cochin/tuticorin Bissau oct /nov shipments 52 lbs, 220 nuts at 1100 usd cnf cochin/tuticorin ghana oct/nov shipments 45 lbs at 825 usd cnf cochin/tuticorin Indonesia oct /nov shipments 52lbs at 1325 usd cnf cochin/tuticorin market is waiting for news from upcoming CDJKL and Tnazania, but news coming old crop around 10000mt still pending in tanzania.

  Cashew kernels markets also seen mixed response this year. fluctuations in exchange rate seems to influence the profitability, but US and European market not showed much interst this season, even forward bookings are very few for Christmas and new year season. reports of vietnam and brazil origin kernels coming to India in Bulk that too with tax exemptions is affecting the kernel prices in domestic market, but expecting government to take positive action in this matter. last traded W320 is at 3.15$/lbs FOB and W240 is at 3.30$/lbs FOB. market seems to get corrected once the RCN prices comes to normal level, but its speculations which always leads to troubles, dont spculate and dont bubble the market, then only Industry can survive.

Awaiting for your valuable feedbacks 

Sreejith k 

commodity trade centre

kollam, kerala 

mob:+919539000599 

email: sreejith@ctcentre.in 

skype: sreejith125

www.ctcentre.in

" A radical inner transformation and rise to a new level of consciousness might be the only real hope we have in the current global crisis brought on by the dominance of the Western mechanistic paradigm"

2011 is ending so as the hope in cashew industry..its hardly few exporters / importers who have not burnt their hands.. 2011 seems to be the reverse of 2010..but most experts believe that the changes in prices is just a correction that happens to the industry.. as per our teams review just by seeing the 2010 trends lots of traders who have not any sound financial capacity entered into raw cashew trading..then it created like a bubble which can burst at any time..these traders even not have the capacity to release the consignments then the exporters again being into trouble..thus the chain of money circulation in industry break down. Trouble from vietnam processors also affected the industry very much, even the LC from various banks got cancelled, that also troubled the shippers.

nearly 20- 25% changes in RCN price happen this season. IVC 44-45 lbs is available in the market at 950$ per mt, bissau at 1300$ for 52 lbs ready cargo , CDJKL origin which was started at 1700+ levels now come down to 1375 $ levels..but now the importers are reluctant to buy in huge volume..day by day fluctuations in currency

rate is adding concern to the industry..Industry is expecting government will take any firm action to control exchange rate..

kernel Price levels were more or less unchanged at around $4 for W240; $3.75 - 3.80$ for W320, Industry is expecting some activity to be happen in month of Feb 2012 as new year celebration in china starts.. Europe and US remain weak economy..not much movement happen for X'mas, thanks giving and new year purchases..Hope Before London Olympics market will show some movement.

As the year ends, we think about all we are grateful for. Our relationship with you is one thing we treasure. Thank you for the opportunity to serve you. We wish you much success in the new year.

appreciating your valuable comments

warm regards

Sreejith k
Commodity Trade Centre
Kollam, India
+91 9539000599
skpype: sreejtih125
Email: sreejtih@ctcentre.in
www.ctcentre.in

DOUBLE DIP IN US...WILL IT EFFECT INDIAN INDUSTRY??

Double dip in US and chance to lower credit ratings in some European countries is causing worries in world market. Even though Finance Minister in India says recession wont effect Indian market, but sudden funds tight in Export- Import market is clearly visible.

Cashew Bills from foreign countries especially European and US stands pending, so traders and processors are facing tough time and pressure to release documents of Raw Cashew Nuts on correct time. Some cargoes which reached 10-15 days prior is getting released. Domestic cashew market is started volatile hearing market news, but Asian markets and off shore markets are offering better price for cashew kernels. Groups and top manufacturers already make their forward contracts at better prices. since its peak season coming in foreign countries processors are seeing good demand for cashew kernels however if recession hit hard it will slow down the demand thus the prices.

Raw cashew market is also at its peak level, but their is chance to small correction in Industry due to shortage of funds coming in market. However West African season almost end, few offers starts from Indonesia at 2100$ cnf for 54-56 lbs, Bissau offers are coming at 1800$ levels..but buying interst is low in market..highseas sale pressure is also reflected in market.

Hope the recession fear in world market will soon end and domestic festive and X'mas, new year bookings starts at its full pace..

Awaiting for comments

For Commodity Trade Centre
Sreejith k
Partner
Mob: +91 9539000599
Email: sreejith@ctcentre.in
Skype: sreejith125
www.ctcentre.in

"Opportunity is often difficult to recognize; we usually expect it to beckon us with beepers and billboards"

Those who taken risk and move without fearing had taste the sweet in this year also. Rcn and cashew kernels market is at its record high level in terms of pricing. Forward offers from west Africa in almost finished now its going to be Indonesia season. several arrivals cargoes are available but at very high price. arriving bissau cargos are selling at 1775$ levels and 47 lbs IVC at 1370$ cnf cochin/ tuticorin. But the traders who taken risk in RCN industry and who hold the cargo earned a very good return. 100$ - 150$ hike in bissau price can be seen in last two weeks. Demand for raw cashew in cashew Industry is increasing and Vietnam and Brazil is also buying in good quantity.



Cashew kernels are also rising into its peak level. Usual peak season from August to January bookings is goin to start. 4.62- 4.65$ Fob level is quoting for w320 and 4.75$ levels for W240. but it seems market will cross 5$ as soon as season starts . Domestic market in India is also goin to active by september- january.



Chances of market correction is very less unless the new season starts. Even Group packers in India is over committed with there consignments. So the market seems to be on positive mode till January shipments.


Appreciating your valuable comments

THANKS AND BEST REGARDS

SREEJITH K

PARTNER
COMMODITY TRADE CENTRE
KOLLAM, KERALA
Mob: +919539000599
Email: sreejith@ctcentre.in
skype: sreejith125

“When it is obvious that the goals cannot be reached, don't adjust the goals, adjust the action steps"

People look for opportunity but its got missed by narrow margin..that what 2011 cashew market showing from begening. IVC issues worst affected the cashew Industry... RCN market started at its highest position ever in market. By April end RCN market showed sign of  downtrend but since shipments from IVC again started delay and crop quality from IVC and Ghana become down, market again started at rising trend.. Reports suggesting some big processors operated there processing unit in Ghana and IVC so a good portion of cargo will go their and more than 100000mt gone through LOME and TEMA port. So arrivals are very low now .. GAMBIA- BISSAU are trading at 1500-50-1600$ levels.. futher increase in Export duty Gambia also adding worries in price level..

Most of the processing units in Inida remains shut down especially in kerala, so it cause little bit high demand for cashew kernels. w320 is being traded at range of $3.90-4.05$ and W240 at 4.20$ levels.Local crops in India also be low in as per industry expectaation adding worries.

A change in RCN market will only boost the industryor kernels market had to be changed in to that level.

Appreciating valuable comments and suggestions

Warm & Best Regards

Sreejith k

COMMODITY TRADE CENTRE, INDIA

+91 9539000599

email : sreejith@ctcentre.in

skype: sreejith125@gmail.com

“Time is swift, it races by; Opportunities are born and die... Still you wait and will not try - A bird with wings who dares not rise and fly.”

Expectation and exploring opportunity two  success mantra  for success in cashew market for 2011…it’s not seen easy for all traders …only with willpower and risk taking ability manufacturers and traders can survive in this season…if  2010 seen a bulk profit booking for majority of  traders, 2011 not seems easy entry for them…situation in IVC worsening day by day…wage hike in cashew industry  in Kollam, report of crop failure from brazil all these add worries  to concern in cashew industry..

Demand for cashew in local market is little down now. But export enquiries are coming for march- april consignments.Off markets like Israel and Asian markets are  showing good buying interest. But political problems in off markets like Egypt, Tunisia etc...are adding little bit of worries. European markets showing little buying interest only indicating that they are still under curb of recession.

W 320 is being traded at $3.75 level and W240 at $4.15 Fob. In raw cashew industry  different news are coming from market,  last year we see price difference of about 20-25$ from each seller but 2011 they are quotng with a difference of around 100- 150$... clear picture will come by mid of feb.

                           "The secret of success in life is for a man to be ready for his opportunity when it comes."
Benjamin Disraeli

Warm Regards

Sreejith k

commodity trade centre

kerala, India

+919539000599

"I heard the bells on Christmas Day. Their old familiar carols play. And wild and sweet the words repeat. Of peace on earth goodwill to men"

MERRY X'MAS TO ALL..LETS PRAY 2011 WILL BE OF PEACE, HAPPINESS AND HUMANITY.

It seems 2011 be tougher year for cashew Industry..processors are all set for their x'mas collections...as we know x'mas and new year is the most promising season for cashew processors, even the recession in Europe cannot stop sales..major market still is Asia, US, Uk and Middle East. w 320 is being traded at 4$- 4.20$ fob level and w240 at 4.25$ to 4.35$ levels. since the cost of raw cashew is increasing day by day kernel price is also increasing.

last week seen a slugish market in RCN market. traders are reluctant to by rcn at high prices. situation in IVC is worsening day by day adding concern to major traders. UN had stopped all its financial aid to country and French government asked their citizen to came back...

Mozambique is being traded in market around 1500$ level for 46 lbs and CDJKL at 1725$ levels..

2011 is expecting rise in rcn prices since the situation is worsening..the labor cost is also increasing in the states adding concern to the indusrty...

letz hope situation will become good and hope market will be active with in few months..

once again team CTC wishes all  a merry X'mas and prosperous new 2011.

appreciating your valuable comments

thanking you

SREEJITH K

COMMODITY TRADE CENTRE

KERALA